Peerzada Arshad Hamid

Srinagar

For the first time in the past 19 years, separatists in Kashmir are subdued and so is their politics. Run -up to the assembly elections scheduled later this year see a stark dissent in their voices.

The face of defiance - All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) - a conglomerate of 23 seperatist parties, founded in 1993 to intensify separatist politics under one banner today seems to have lost relevance to a large extent.  

Hurriyat faction led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani is hell bent to persuade people for boycotting the upcoming polls and has even kick started his campaign by addressing Friday gatherings in Mosques. The other faction led by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq is learnt to have decided not to be part of poll boycott campaign. Although they are yet to speak it in open, their leaders are tightlipped over the matter.

Assumptions are rife that 2008 elections would be turning point for separatists in valley. Already elections in 2002 saw bifurcation of Hurriyat after Syed Ali Shah Geelani sought public explanation from the Hurriyat over its failure to boycott elections and proxy participation into the polls, a hint towards Lone brothers. Deepening crisis resulted in division among People's Conference, with Sajad Lone opting out from Hurriyat and launching salvos openly at Geelani. Bilal Lone retained his position in the APHC.

However, this year's election with two Hurriyat taking up two different agendas is going to deepen the divide further.  

The defining image of Kashmir's new separatist politics is the discord among two Hurriyats and Pakistan government's approval to mainstream politicians. The creation of new bonds (sharing of dice by Asif Ali zardari and Mehbooba Mufti on laters visit to Pakistan) is enough an indication of the changed situation and political discourse in Kashmir.

Pakistan's changing favourites has left common man in Kashmir disillusioned. He sees approach of moderate Hurriyat more as escapism on their part rather than anything else. If separatists like Syed Ali Geelani use to lead the funeral prayers of militants, for people in mainstream visiting the families of deceased militants and joining the mourning is no more seen as supporting or abetting the "terrorism". Earlier it was Mehabooba Mufti, who use to visit families of killed militants, now National Conference leaders too have started similar tactics. Very recently brother of Farooq Abdullah, Mustaf Kamal was seen attending a condolence meeting of a killed militant in his Pattan.

Mirwaiz has been maintaining that elections should not be linked with Kashmir issue as they had no impact on the Kashmir issue during the past 60 years. Recently he even proposed that his alliance would advance 10 steps if New Delhi takes one step in showing sincerity to resolve the Kashmir issue.

"In no case should the assembly polls in the state be linked to the Kashmir issue because the two are not even remotely connected. Our entire attention is focused on resolving the Kashmir issue and we have a complete agenda and political thought. If India takes one step forward in resolving the issue, we are prepared to take ten," Mirwaiz said.

On the contrary Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani believes that implementation of UN resolutions can only solve the Kashmir issue and he advocates right to self-determination.  Although, having turned a recluse in its fight, pressure is building up on Geelani to take on the state as well as mainstream politicians.

Firdous Sayed is a militant turned legislator turned peace activist in Srinagar. He does not subscribe to the view that moderate Hurriyat is escaping the situation but maintains that end of elections will see separatist sentiment revolving around Geelani.

Sayed foresees that separatist sentiment would outlive the situation but separatist infrastructure will be in doldrums after elections.

"At present I don't see any difference in their ideologies instead a difference in modus operandi. Geelani Hurriyat will vigorously pursue the poll boycott campaign while as Mirwaiz Hurriyat many not," said Sayed.

Though Mirwaiz Hurriyat faction is expected to under take a journey to Pakistan in the month of June this year to mobilize support in their favour, Kashmir watchers see the move as an indication to evade the poll boycott campaign. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq is also expected to leave valley for year long fellowship program at Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.

Mirwaiz's absence from Kashmir at the time of the Assembly elections too is being seen as a move to keep himself away from the state during the poll process.

The other groups silence over election boycott may be haunting Geelani but he does not disclose it. The old man is adamant on his programme to call for a poll boycott.

The discord among the separatists is going to benefit the mainstream parties, who are all agog to sweep the polls. During their rallies and public meetings they accuse each other of being New Delhi's stooges and talk of resolution of Kashmir issue citing their own formulas. They do all this to woo the voters in their favour.