As I sat to write about the political crisis in my state, a friend of mine called me up to inform Jammu and Kashmir assembly was dissolved and the governor’s rule was imposed. Although, it’s not something unexpected instead was quite obvious after Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad’s resignation.

Azad’s resignation in the state assembly on Monday (June 7) that had met in Srinagar to decide Congress government’s fate was approval to the fact that he and his cohorts were lying to maintain their decorum until then. Well before the polling Azad gave a speech followed by his announcement to step down.

During his speech to assembly Azad told that he does not wish to put his friends in trouble whose hearts are somewhere else and their party whip is somewhere else. This was followed by his request to speaker Tara Chand to withdraw the confidence motion moved by him at the beginning of his speech.

Ever since Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) pulled out from the coalition government, Azad and his cohorts were high on rhetoric maintaining their party would be able to prove the majority during the floor test. Although none of the Congress leaders were pragmatic enough to substantiate their claims, still there were assertions that party would be able to garner the support from some legislators mainly belonging to PDP. And statements issued by PDP in the press giving an inkling that Congress might indulge in horse trading to show their majority lend credibility to such reports.

However, the claims and allegations proved to be a complete hoax. With National Conference, PDP, NPP and BJP together having 48 members in the 89-member state assembly (two women members nominated by the Governor), Congress could not get the required 45 seats. Therefore, Azad was left with no choice but to tender the resignation to the Governor.

PDP had entered into a power sharing agreement with Congress following a hung verdict in 2002 polls. The Congress and the PDP coalition took over the reins in November 2002 with an agreement that each would hold the chief minister’s post for three years. PDP completed her term in the first phase and handed power to Congress in 2005. There have been instances when party differed with the stand taken by PDP. Be it troop withdrawal or that of involvement of forest minister in the forest scam. Every time the parties overcame the crisis with central government’s timely arbitration well before endangering the coalition. Since Congress party at the centre is caught in the crisis over nuclear deal, it could not effectively strike a deal between the two partners in the current crisis.

A fissure in relations between Congress and the PDP before the upcoming Assembly elections was always on the cards, but analysts say for the PDP it could not have come at a better time, or for better reasons. However, in the development Congress party was at a receiving end for the crisis could not have come at a worse time, or for worse reasons.

PDP has long been thinking to break free of the shackles of a coalition with the Congress and expand his own base in the Valley and beyond. But insiders in the party maintain that rift within the party thwarted any such effective strategy. The party received a blow after its rebel leader Ghulam Hassan Mir launched his own party.  

Chief Minister’s resignation came nine days after PDP withdrew support to the coalition government over the Amarnath land row. Around 40 hectares of forest land in Baltal area have been transferred to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) for Rs 2.31crores (23.1 million rupees). The order triggered valley wide protests and government was made to rescind the order. No doubt the government’s revocation brought life back to normal, in Jammu, the move was strongly opposed. Tension gripped to such an extent that curfew was imposed in the many party of the region to contain the situation that was taking communal shape. Land issue virtually divided two regions of the state in to two with Jammu for and Kashmir against the granting of land to SASB.

 So far eight people (six with valley and two in Jammu) have got killed and hundreds of others injured in the state over the row.

Observers see the decision by Ghulam Nabi Azad as a political one to dilute the situation in Jammu region that erupted following the government’s rollback on Amarnath. Azad’s resignation has been celebrated in Jammu with people setting off fire crackers and distributing sweets. Since people have been demanding his resignation over his decision to revoke the land transfer, the act would come as a relief for the agitating youth who would see decision as the winning of popular sentiment.

Although Azad defended his decision to withdraw the vote of confidence in assembly by stating that since he has brought the anti-defection law into the state, he would never wanted to indulge in horse trading. However Azad’s response to avoid vote of confidence motion is taken as a face saving by him. Insiders say that although Congress party was well in touch with some legislators but it was not able to woo the required number to prove the majority.